Bills vs. Chiefs odds, line, time: 2024 NFL divisional round picks, playoff predictions by proven model

The Buffalo Bills will look for the season sweep over the Kansas City Chiefs when they meet in an AFC Divisional Round matchup on Sunday. The Chiefs (12-6), winners of the AFC West for the eighth year in a row, have knocked Buffalo out of the NFL playoffs in two of the past three seasons. The Bills (12-6), who won the AFC East for the fourth time in a row, have lost in the divisional round of the playoffs the past two seasons. Buffalo earned a 20-17 win over Kansas City on Dec. 10. You can watch the game on CBS and stream it live on Paramount+

Kickoff from Highmark Stadium is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on CBS and Paramount+. Buffalo is a 2.5-point favorite in the latest Bills vs. Chiefs odds from the SportsLine Consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 45.5. Before locking in any Chiefs vs. Bills picks, you need to see the latest NFL predictions from SportsLine’s proven projection model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs on an incredible 183-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 37-21 roll on top-rated picks since Week 7 of last season and nailed seven straight top-rated picks entering the 2024 NFL playoffs.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has zeroed in on Bills vs. Chiefs and just revealed its picks and predictions. You can see the model’s picks only at SportsLine. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Chiefs vs. Bills:

  • Bills vs. Chiefs spread: Buffalo -2.5
  • Bills vs. Chiefs over/under: 45.5 points
  • Bills vs. Chiefs money line: Buffalo -149, Kansas City +125
  • KC: Chiefs were 10-7 against the spread this season
  • BUF: Bills are 8-10 ATS this season
  • Bills vs. Chiefs picks: See picks at SportsLine 
  • Bills vs. Chiefs live stream: Paramount+ (try free for one week)

Why the Bills can cover

Veteran wide receiver Stefon Diggs continues to be Buffalo’s top target in the passing game. He caught seven passes for 52 yards in the 31-17 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers last Monday after a seven-catch, 87-yard performance at Miami to help the Bills lock down the AFC East title. For the season, he has 107 receptions for 1,183 yards (11.1 average) and eight touchdowns with 58 first-down conversions and 399 yards after the catch.

Another target for Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen is second-year wide receiver Khalil Shakir. The fifth-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft caught three passes for 31 yards and a score in the win over Pittsburgh last Monday. He was a key contributor in the season finale, catching six passes for 105 yards (17.5 average) and three first-down conversions at Miami on Jan. 7. For the year, he caught 39 passes for 611 yards (15.7 average) and two touchdowns. See which team to pick here.

Why the Chiefs can cover

Seventh-year veteran Patrick Mahomes has led the Chiefs to three Super Bowls since 2019, winning two of them, including a 38-35 triumph over the Philadelphia Eagles in last year’s Super Bowl. In 96 regular-season games, Mahomes has thrown for 28,424 yards and 219 touchdowns with just 63 interceptions and a rating of 103.5. In 16 regular-season games in 2023, he completed 401 of 597 passes (67.2%) for 4,183 yards and 27 touchdowns with 14 interceptions and a 92.6 rating.

Another key contributor on defense is fourth-year veteran cornerback L’Jarius Sneed. He was among Kansas City’s top tacklers during the regular season, making 78 stops, including 60 solo. He has registered five tackles for loss, one fumble recovery, 14 pass breakups, and two interceptions. In the Dec. 10 loss to the Bills, he made seven tackles, including five solo, with three pass breakups. See which team to pick here.

How to make Bills vs. Chiefs picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over the total, predicting 48 total points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can see the model’s NFL picks and analysis only at SportsLine

So who wins Chiefs vs. Bills in the NFL playoffs 2024, and which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Chiefs vs. Bills spread you should jump on, all from the advanced model on a 183-129 roll on NFL picks, and find out.

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