Game Predictions | Bills vs. Chiefs

What to watch for: For the first time in this rivalry between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, the Chiefs are coming to Orchard Park for the postseason. The quarterbacks have met six times, with the Bills winning three of the four regular-season meetings, and the Chiefs taking both postseason games (2020 and 2021). The difference for the Bills in the regular and postseason matchups is the defensive success. In the regular season, the Bills have held the Chiefs to 20.8 points per game and produced nine takeaways, but in the playoffs, Kansas City has averaged 40 points per game and had only one turnover. There will be a big test ahead for a Bills defense dealing with a variety of injuries. — Alaina Getzenberg

Bold prediction: Mahomes and Allen will combine for at least six TD passes. These two always put on a show when they play, particularly in the postseason. Mahomes and Allen combined for five scoring passes in the AFC Championship Game after the 2020 season and seven in the divisional round the next season. The conditions will be less than ideal, but that hasn’t stopped them before. — Adam Teicher

Stat to know: One area that might differentiate the Bills from the Chiefs could be winning the turnover battle. The Bills forced 30 turnovers this season, the second most in the NFL (the Ravens and Giants forced 31 each). The Chiefs forced 17 turnovers this season, the 27th most in the NFL.

Matchup X factor: The Bills’ cornerback health. Taron Johnson (concussion), Rasul Douglas (knee) and Christian Benford (knee) are all banged up. While Buffalo looks like the better team on paper, a depleted secondary against Mahomes seems like a dangerous combination. — Walder

Game-plan key: In the Week 14 matchup between these teams, Bills running back James Cook had 83 receiving yards. Look for the Bills to get Cook involved in the passing game again with backfield releases and screens. And look for Chiefs linebacker Nick Bolton to be key in limiting those plays. — Bowen

Officiating note: Shawn Hochuli is one of the NFL’s more active referees. During the regular season, he threw an NFL-high 14 flags for roughing the passer, five more than the next-closest referee. Since becoming a referee in 2018, he has led the league with 61 such flags. That could prove interesting, as Allen has grown adept at drawing roughing the passer fouls. He drew six in 2023, the most in the league. Mahomes drew only one. — Seifert

Betting nugget: Mahomes is 10-5 ATS in his playoff career, including 7-2 ATS when he is not at least a seven-point favorite. Allen is 3-6 ATS in his playoff career.

Moody’s pick: Bills 31, Chiefs 27

Walder’s pick: Chiefs 32, Bills 31

FPI prediction: BUF, 56.6% (by an average of 2.3 points)

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